I-BBC Verify ifumanise ukuba iRussia iphindaphinde kabini uhlaselo lwayo lwasemoyeni e-Ukraine ukusukela oko uMongameli uDonald Trump wangena eofisini ngoJanuwari 2025, nangona wayemema uluntu ukuba kumiswe uqhankqalazo.
Inani leemijukujelwa kunye needroni ezidutyulwe yiMoscow linyuke kakhulu emva kokuphumelela kukaTrump kunyulo ngoNovemba ka-2024 kwaye liqhubekile nokunyuka kulo lonke ixesha lakhe lokuba ngumongameli. Phakathi komhla wama-20 kuJanuwari nowe-19 kuJulayi ka-2025, iRashiya yaqalisa izixhobo zomoya ezingama-27,158 e-Ukraine—ngaphezulu kabini kune-11,614 ebhalwe kwiinyanga ezintandathu zokugqibela phantsi koMongameli wangaphambili uJoe Biden.
Izithembiso zePhulo vs. Ukwanda kweNyaniso
Ngexesha lomkhankaso wakhe ka-2024, uMongameli uTrump wathembisa ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukuphelisa imfazwe yase-Ukraine "ngosuku olunye" ukuba unyuliwe, esithi ukuhlasela ngokupheleleyo kweRashiya ngekwakunokuphetshwa ukuba umongameli "ohlonitshwayo" yiKremlin ebesesikhundleni.
Nangona kunjalo, nangona wayechaze injongo yakhe yoxolo, abagxeki bathi ukuba ngumongameli kukaTrump kwasekuqaleni kuthumele imiqondiso exubeneyo. Ulawulo lwakhe lwamisa okwethutyana ukuhanjiswa kwezixhobo zokuzikhusela emoyeni kunye noncedo lomkhosi e-Ukraine ngoMatshi nangoJulayi, nangona zombini ezi khefu zarhoxiswa kamva. Ukuphazamiseka kwahambelana nokunyuka okukhulu kwemveliso yezixhobo zomkhosi kunye needrone zaseRashiya.
Ngokwengxelo yolwazi lomkhosi wase-Ukraine, imveliso yee-missile ze-ballistic zaseRashiya inyuke ngama-66% kunyaka ophelileyo. Ii-drones ze-German-2—iinguqulelo ze-Iranian Shahed drones ezenziwe eRashiya—ngoku zenziwa ngesantya se-170 ngosuku kwisakhiwo esitsha esikhulu e-Alabuga, apho iRashiya ithi sesona sikhululo se-drones zokulwa ehlabathini.
Iincopho zoHlaselo lwaseRashiya
Olu hlaselo lufikelele kwinqanaba eliphezulu ngomhla wesi-9 kweyeKhala ngo-2025, xa uMkhosi woMoya wase-Ukraine wabika ii-missile kunye needrone ezingama-748 eziqhushumbiswe ngosuku olunye—nto leyo eyabangela ukufa kwabantu ababini kunye nokwenzakala kwabantu abangaphezu kweshumi elinesibini. Ukusukela ekumiselweni kukaTrump, iRussia iqhushumbise uhlaselo oluninzi lwemihla ngemihla kunerekhodi kaJulayi 9 izihlandlo ezili-14.
Nangona uTrump wayenomsindo onzima—kubikwa ukuba ufuna izinto ezininzi emva kohlaselo olukhulu ngoMeyi,"Kwenzeka ntoni kuye [uPutin]?"—iKremlin ayilunciphisanga uhlaselo lwayo.
Imizamo yoBugcisa kunye nokugxekwa
Ekuqaleni kukaFebruwari, uNobhala welizwe uMarco Rubio wakhokela igqiza laseMelika kwiingxoxo zoxolo noMphathiswa Wezangaphandle waseRashiya uSergei Lavrov eRiyadh, ezalandelwa ziingxoxo phakathi kwamagosa aseUkraine nawaseRashiya eTurkey. Ezi ngxoxo zonxibelelwano ekuqaleni zaziphelekwa kukwehla okwethutyana kohlaselo lwaseRashiya, kodwa kungekudala zaphinda zanda.
Abagxeki bathi inkxaso engaguqukiyo kaTrump emkhosini yaqinisa iMoscow. USenator Chris Coons, isekela eliphezulu leDemocrat kwiKomiti yezoBudlelwane bangaphandle yeSenate, uthe:
"UPutin uziva enesibindi ngenxa yobuthathaka bukaTrump. Umkhosi wakhe uqinise uqhankqalazo kwiziseko zophuhliso zabantu abaqhelekileyo—izibhedlele, igridi yombane, kunye namagumbi okubeleka—ngokuphindaphinda okoyikekayo."
UCoons ugxininise ukuba ukwanda koncedo lokhuseleko lwaseNtshona kuphela okunokunyanzela iRashiya ukuba icinge nzulu ngokupheliswa kwemfazwe.
Ukwanda Kokungakwazi Ukuzikhusela e-Ukraine
Umhlalutyi wezomkhosi uJustin Bronk weRoyal United Services Institute (RUSI) ulumkisile ukuba ukulibaziseka kunye nemiqathango yokunikezelwa kwezixhobo zase-US kushiye i-Ukraine isengozini enkulu yokuhlaselwa emoyeni. Wongeze ngelithi ukwanda kwemfumba yeemijukujelwa ze-ballistic kunye needrone ze-kamikaze eRashiya, kunye nokunciphisa ukuhanjiswa kweemijukujelwa ze-interceptor zaseMelika, kuye kwenza iKremlin yandisa umkhankaso wayo ngeziphumo ezibi kakhulu.
Iinkqubo zokhuselo lomoya zase-Ukraine, kuquka neebhetri zePatriot ezisebenzayo kakhulu, ziyancipha. Inkqubo nganye yePatriot ixabisa malunga ne-1 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, kwaye i-missile nganye iphantse ibe yi-4 yezigidi zeerandi—izixhobo ezifunwa kakhulu yi-Ukraine kodwa kunzima ukuzigcina. UTrump uvumile ukuthengisa izixhobo kumaqabane e-NATO, nawo athumela ezinye zezo zixhobo eKyiv, kuquka nezinye iinkqubo zePatriot.
Emhlabeni: Uloyiko nokudinwa
Kwabemi abaqhelekileyo, ubomi bemihla ngemihla obuphantsi kosongelo oluhlala luhleli bube yinto eqhelekileyo.
"Ubusuku ngabunye xa ndilala, ndizibuza ukuba ndiza kuvuka na,"utshilo intatheli uDasha Volk eKyiv, ethetha nababukeli be-BBC base-Ukraine.
“Uva iziqhushumbisi okanye imijukujelwa ngaphezulu, uze ucinge—’Yiyo le.’”
Umoya uyaphela njengoko iindlela zokuzikhusela emoyeni zisiya zingena ngakumbi.
“Abantu badiniwe. Siyazi ukuba silwela ntoni, kodwa emva kweminyaka emininzi kangaka, ukudinwa kuyinyani,”UVolk wongeze watsho.
Isiphelo: Ukungaqiniseki Ngaphambili
Njengoko iRashiya iqhubeka nokwandisa imveliso yayo yeedrone kunye neemissile—kwaye njengoko izixhobo zokhuselo lomoya zase-Ukraine zifikelele kumda wazo—ikamva lemfazwe aliqinisekanga. Urhulumente kaTrump ujongene noxinzelelo olukhulayo lokuthumela umqondiso ocacileyo noqinileyo kwiKremlin: wokuba iNtshona ayizukurhoxa, kwaye uxolo alunakufumaneka ngokuxolisa okanye ukulibaziseka.
Nokuba eso sigidimi siyahanjiswa—kwaye siyamkelwa—sinokumisela isigaba esilandelayo sale mfazwe.
Umthombo weNqaku:I-BBC
Ixesha lokuthumela: Agasti-06-2025
