BBC Verify ta gano cewa Rasha ta ninka hare-haren sama da ta kai wa Ukraine sau biyu tun lokacin da Shugaba Donald Trump ya hau mulki a watan Janairun 2025, duk da kiran da ya yi wa jama'a na tsagaita wuta.
Adadin makamai masu linzami da jiragen sama marasa matuki da Moscow ta harba ya karu sosai bayan nasarar zaben Trump a watan Nuwamba na 2024 kuma ya ci gaba da hauhawa a tsawon shugabancinsa. Tsakanin 20 ga Janairu da 19 ga Yuli na 2025, Rasha ta harba harsasai 27,158 a Ukraine - fiye da ninki biyu na adadin harsasai 11,614 da aka samu a cikin watanni shida na ƙarshe a ƙarƙashin tsohon Shugaba Joe Biden.
Alkawuran Yaƙin Neman Zaɓe da Ƙaruwar Gaskiya
A lokacin yakin neman zabensa na 2024, Shugaba Trump ya yi ta alƙawarin kawo ƙarshen yaƙin Ukraine "cikin kwana ɗaya" idan aka zaɓe shi, yana mai jayayya cewa da an kauce wa mamayar Rasha gaba ɗaya idan shugaban Kremlin da ake "girmamawa" yana kan mulki.
Duk da haka, duk da manufarsa ta zaman lafiya, masu suka sun ce farkon shugabancin Trump ya aika da sakonni daban-daban. Gwamnatinsa ta dakatar da isar da makaman kariya ta sama da taimakon soja zuwa Ukraine na ɗan lokaci a watan Maris da Yuli, kodayake daga baya an sauya dukkan dakatarwar. Katsewar ta zo daidai da karuwar yawan makamai masu linzami da jiragen sama marasa matuki na Rasha.
A cewar bayanan sirrin sojojin Ukraine, samar da makamai masu linzami na ballistic na Rasha ya karu da kashi 66% a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Ana kera jiragen sama marasa matuka na Geran-2—irin jiragen saman Iran Shahed da aka yi a Rasha—yanzu haka ana kera su a kan 170 a kowace rana a wani babban cibiya da ke Alabuga, wanda Rasha ta yi ikirarin cewa ita ce babbar masana'antar jiragen sama marasa matuka ta duniya.
Kololuwar hare-haren Rasha
Hare-haren sun kai kololuwa a ranar 9 ga Yuli, 2025, lokacin da Rundunar Sojan Sama ta Ukraine ta ba da rahoton harba makamai masu linzami da jiragen sama marasa matuki 748 a cikin kwana ɗaya—wanda ya haifar da mutuwar aƙalla mutane biyu da kuma raunuka sama da goma sha biyu. Tun bayan rantsar da Trump, Rasha ta ƙaddamar da hare-hare fiye da na ranar 9 ga Yuli sau 14 a rana.
Duk da rashin jin daɗin da Trump ya nuna—wanda rahotanni suka ce ya buƙaci bayan wani babban hari da aka kai a watan Mayu,"Me ya same shi [Putin]?"—Kremlin bai rage yawan hare-haren da yake kai wa ba.
Kokarin Diflomasiyya da Suka
A farkon watan Fabrairu, Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka Marco Rubio ya jagoranci tawagar Amurka zuwa tattaunawar zaman lafiya da Ministan Harkokin Wajen Rasha Sergei Lavrov a Riyadh, wanda ya biyo bayan tattaunawar da aka yi tsakanin jami'an Ukraine da na Rasha a Turkiyya. Da farko waɗannan shawarwarin diflomasiyya sun kasance tare da raguwar hare-haren Rasha na ɗan lokaci, amma ba da daɗewa ba suka sake ta'azzara.
Masu suka sun yi zargin cewa rashin daidaiton goyon bayan soja da gwamnatin Trump ke bayarwa ya ƙarfafa Moscow gwiwa. Sanata Chris Coons, wani babban ɗan jam'iyyar Democrat a Kwamitin Hulɗa da Ƙasashen Waje na Majalisar Dattawa, ya ce:
"Putin yana jin ƙarfin gwiwa saboda raunin Trump. Sojojinsa sun ƙara kai hare-hare kan kayayyakin more rayuwa na fararen hula—asibitoci, tashar wutar lantarki, da kuma ɗakunan haihuwa—tare da yawan tashin hankali."
Coons ya jaddada cewa karuwar taimakon tsaro na ƙasashen yamma ne kawai zai iya tilasta wa Rasha ta yi la'akari da yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta da muhimmanci.
Ƙaruwar Rauni a Ukraine
Mai sharhi kan harkokin soja Justin Bronk na Cibiyar Ayyukan Royal United (RUSI) ya yi gargadin cewa jinkiri da takaita kayayyakin makaman Amurka sun sanya Ukraine cikin mawuyacin hali ga hare-haren sama. Ya kara da cewa karuwar tarin makamai masu linzami masu linzami da jiragen sama marasa matuki na kamikaze da Rasha ke yi, tare da raguwar jigilar makamai masu linzami na Amurka, ya bai wa Kremlin damar kara kaimi da mummunan sakamako.
Tsarin tsaron sararin samaniyar Ukraine, gami da batirin Patriot mai inganci, suna aiki kaɗan. Kowace tsarin Patriot tana kashe kusan dala biliyan 1, kuma kowace makami mai linzami kusan dala miliyan 4—albarkatun da Ukraine ke buƙata da matuƙar buƙata amma tana fama da matsalar kula da su. Trump ya amince ya sayar da makamai ga ƙawayen NATO waɗanda, bi da bi, ke aika wasu daga cikin waɗannan makaman zuwa Kyiv, gami da yiwuwar ƙarin tsarin Patriot.
A Kasa: Tsoro da Gajiya
Ga fararen hula, rayuwar yau da kullun da ke ƙarƙashin barazana ta zama sabon abu.
"Kowace dare idan na yi barci, ina mamakin ko zan farka,"in ji ɗan jarida Dasha Volk a Kyiv, yana magana da BBC a Ukrainecast.
"Kana jin fashewar abubuwa ko makamai masu linzami a sama, kuma kana tunanin—'Wannan shi ne.'"
Hankali ya fara kwanciya yayin da ake ƙara shiga cikin kariyar iska.
"Mutane sun gaji. Mun san abin da muke faɗa a kansa, amma bayan shekaru da yawa, gajiyar ta zama gaskiya,"Volk ya ƙara da cewa.
Kammalawa: Rashin tabbas a Gaba
Yayin da Rasha ke ci gaba da faɗaɗa samar da jiragen sama marasa matuƙa da makamai masu linzami—kuma yayin da kayayyakin tsaron sararin samaniyar Ukraine ke ƙaruwa—makomar rikicin har yanzu ba a tabbatar da ita ba. Gwamnatin Trump na fuskantar matsin lamba mai ƙaruwa don aika wata alama mai haske da ƙarfi ga Kremlin: cewa ƙasashen yamma ba za su ja da baya ba, kuma ba za a iya cimma zaman lafiya ta hanyar jin daɗi ko jinkiri ba.
Ko an isar da wannan saƙon—kuma an karɓe shi—na iya tsara mataki na gaba na wannan yaƙin.
Tushen Labari:BBC
Lokacin Saƙo: Agusta-06-2025
